Mike Doig gave a thorough and thought-provoking analysis of referendums at the Rotary meeting on 5 February 2019.

Referendums (=Referenda = Plebicites)

'Direct Democracy' - Put the question to the people and let them decide.

Versus

'Parliamentary or Representative Democracy' - Elect people to make decisions for us.

Versus

A hybrid of the two - focussing a general election on a single issue.

A Referendum has to:

1. Be simple and easily understood
2. Have a clear course of action
3. Be free of conflicts of interest
4. Pose a question where one person’s opinion is as good as another’s
5. There is freedom of action to implement the result

Representative Democracy is best where:

1. The question is complex
2. It needs expert analysis and input
3. Decisions need to be teased out slowly
4. Decisions require consultation with third parties
5. There are trade-offs to be considered

A good decision is one where, after the passage of time, the majority are still comfortable with it.

In most countries, Referendums are rarely used.

Examples: probably OK for referendums

• Change our flag?
• Change our voting system?
• Decriminalise abortion?
• Decriminalise marijuana?
• Become a republic?

and not OK:

• What should be the top rate of income tax be?
• More money for PHARMAC?

The Brexit Question
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
June 2016  - Factors which influenced voters

Leavers

• Immigration
• Dislike of ‘Foreigners’
• EU Bureaucracy
• Annual contribution to EU funds
• Sovereignty (ie not subject to EU or ECJ decisions)

Remainers

• Impact on the economy, jobs
• Trade prospects
• National Security
• Freedom to work in EU
• Policing/crime prevention/terrorism
• Membership of EU institutions (Atomic, Environmental, Scientific etc)
• Status of UK retirees in EU

The border in Ireland (Nobody foresaw this problem)

This Referendum was a blunder leading to a constitutional crisis and trashing of Britain’s reputation. It was borne out of a split in the Tory Party. Direct democracy collided with representative democracy.

• 65% of MPs wanted to remain but 52% of voters in 63% of constituencies said ‘leave’.
• MPs were trapped.
• No-one knew what leaving really meant.
• Negotiating with the EU proved difficult.
• Superficially the question seemed simple but the issues are very complex.
• The motives of many voters were unworthy.
• It's not clear to what extent social media and Russian interference played a part.

With hindsight, the referendum failed the basic tests.