Rotary Club of Plimmerton
This week’s speaker was Ed Forsman, an ICT specialist who has worked extensively in the Energy sector. It was one of the most informative and effective presentations I have heard at the club, or anywhere else for that matter, and Joe Perera should be congratulated for bringing it about.
Ed provided us with a mass of information about the current state and future of the electric vehicle industry, and concluded by giving us some guidelines to help our car buying decisions.
To summarise:
• There are four vehicle types: internal combustion (ICE), Hybrid (HEV), Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV), and Battery Electric (BEV).
• ICE manufacture will cease by 2035
• Hybrid cars are ‘transitional’ and the future is BEV
• Batteries are critical to this; volumes are rising, costs are coming down and performance is steadily improving
• BEVs have about 6% market share globally and in NZ; this is growing fast especially in China
• Tesla is dominant in the market but Chinese firms are emerging
• ‘Legacy’ car makers (GM, Toyota etc) are being left behind and may struggle
• Price parity between ICE and BEV is almost here as battery costs reduce
• Battery production is critical and there are issues with obtaining rare and costly materials, but R&D is huge and new designs should overcome this
• In NZ, it is forecast that EVs will take 50% of the new car market by 2029, of which 80% will be BEVs
• Incentives to buy EVs will grow, but we may have problems getting all vehicle types in right hand drive format
• The charging infrastructure will need to develop; the goal is to have rapid chargers every 75Km on main highways
• This will impact on the electricity supply network
• Petrol stations as we know them will fade away.
In giving us advice about upgrading to a BEV, Ed was surprisingly cautious. BEVs will eventually lower the total cost of vehicle ownership. But firstly, could we defer our purchase? Could we re-evaluate our vehicle needs?
The market and infrastructure are volatile at present and things will be clearer the longer we wait. Pre-owned ICE cars will fall in price after 2025. BEVs of certain types (eg SUVs) may not be available. His advice was to stick to leading brands and consider 3-year leasing.
Every club member has an interest in car ownership to a greater or lesser degree. Those of us who heard Ed’s talk are now much better informed. Thanks, Ed.